Section 2 · Lecture 05 · Intro to Probability
Two experiments described in a common framework: the variable, its data type, the outcome space, the random variable and the measurement space. The first experiment has four possible outcomes, and the second has 150, one for each student in the class.
The experiment
In snapdragons, flower colour shows incomplete dominance: RR plants are red, WW plants are white and RW plants are pink. A lab student crosses two pink (RW) plants, grows the seeds, and records the flower colour of each offspring plant. Which allele each parent passes on is random — it happens out of sight, during meiosis and fertilisation.
The setup
From outcome space to random variable
4 outcomes, but only 3 values. (R,W) and (W,R) both give a pink plant. In the greenhouse the student can't tell them apart — they only ever record the value of Y, never the outcome itself.
The distribution of the random variable Y
| Value of Y | Outcomes that give it | Pr(Y = y) |
|---|---|---|
| red | (R,R) | 1/4 = 0.25 |
| pink | (R,W), (W,R) | 2/4 = 0.50 |
| white | (W,W) | 1/4 = 0.25 |
| Total | 4 outcomes | 1 |
Run the experiment
Number of offspring plants grown
Outcomes (hidden biology)
Values of Y (what the student records)
Grow more plants and the observed proportions settle towards 1/4, 1/2, 1/4.
The experiment
Assume a class has 150 students, and each student’s height has been measured to the nearest cm. One student is chosen at random — every student is equally likely to be picked — and their height is recorded.
The setup
The class: outcome space and random variable
Each tile is one outcome (a student). The large number is the value of Y for that outcome — the student’s height in cm.
Every student has probability 1/150 of being chosen. So the probability of any event is simply the number of students in the event ÷ 150.
Summary of the class heights
Frequency distribution of Y
Bin width = 10 cmEach interval includes its lower boundary but not its upper one: for example, 150 – 160 means 150 ≤ height < 160.
Because every student is equally likely to be chosen, the relative frequency of an interval is exactly the probability that Y falls in it.